Are Mortgage Rates Going to Keep Falling?

Everything you need to know about today's rate environment, local news, and the most current market trends

MARCO ISLAND NEWS

Marco Island City Council OKs first property tax rate increase in 8 years by a 4-2 vote: “Marco Island City Council Sept. 22, 2025, voted 4-2 vote to approve a property tax increase for Fiscal Year 2026, which starts Oct. 1. The property tax, or millage rate, approved is 1.267 mill for FY26, up from 1.2400 FY25.”

Two waterfront estates break records on Marco Island: “A beachfront Villa in Hideaway Beach sold for $8 million, the highest price ever recorded for a villa in the community. Days later, a waterfront estate on Old Marco Lane closed for $9.5 million, ranking as the island’s third-highest single-family home sale.”

📊 The Market Summary

Months of Inventory: 7.41 (↓ 15.02%)
Sold to List Price Ratio: 92.1% (↑ 0.08%)
Days on Market: 103 (↑ 5.1%)
Median Sold Price: $850,000 (↓ 27.04%)

Understanding Today's Mortgage Rate Environment 📉

I know many of you are probably asking whether the Federal Reserve's recent quarter-point rate cut means it's finally time to make your move in our local market. I’m going to walk you through some of the latest news and data and give you a clearer picture of where we’re at, where we’re headed, and what it means for you.

WHERE ARE RATES TRENDING?

“Mortgage giant Fannie Mae has issued new projections forecasting that mortgage rates will finally fall below 6% by the end of 2026, a level that has not been reached in three years.

Fannie Mae's latest monthly economic and housing outlook for September predicts mortgage rates will average 6.4% at the end of this year, and 5.9% at the end of 2026.

Those are downward revisions from a month ago, when Fannie saw year-end mortgage rates at 6.5% in 2025 and 6% next year.

If mortgage rates do punch below the 6% threshold in late 2026, it would be the first time they have reached that level since 2022. Since then, elevated rates have combined with record-high home prices to price many buyers out of the market, weighing heavily on the number of home sales.” (Sept. 24, 2025). Full article here.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TO RATES RIGHT NOW?

According to Realtor.com:

Mortgage rates rose Thursday for the first time in over a month, as markets reacted to the Federal Reserve's cautious outlook for the near future following last week's quarter-point cut to its benchmark interest rate.

The average rate on 30-year fixed home loans increased to 6.3% for the week ending Sept. 25, up from 6.26% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. Rates averaged 6.08% during the same period in 2024.

‘Following several weeks of decline, mortgage rates inched up this week,’ says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. ‘Housing market activity continues to hold up with purchase and refinance applications increasing by 18% and 42%, respectively, compared to the same time last year.’

But even with Thursday’s uptick of 4 basis points, mortgage interest rates remain near 11-month lows, creating opportunities for both prospective buyers and existing homeowners considering a refinance. 

At the current 6.3% level, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical home is appreciably lower than it would have been at last year's highs.” (Sept. 25, 2025).

What does this mean for homebuyers? It would likely be apt to focus on what you can comfortably afford today rather than trying to time the perfect rate. Remember, if rates do drop later, you can always refinance. But waiting could mean competing with more buyers when rates eventually fall, potentially driving up the very home prices you're trying to avoid.

Questions about how interest rates might affect your plans?

Whether you're wondering if now's the right time to buy or sell, curious about your home's current value in this market, or just want to talk through your options, I'm here to help.

I love talking real estate (it's kind of my thing!), and I'm always happy to share what I'm seeing here on Marco Island. Reply to this email or call me at (239) 388-7715—let's chat!

Edward Karas
REALTOR® | PSA | RSPS | C2EX
Premiere Plus Realty
(239) 388-7715 | [email protected]

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