Marco Island Real Estate Insider | 4th of July Edition

Find out what's happening on Marco with the 4th of July weekend just around the corner!

The $540K Question: Why May's Numbers Don't Add Up

Something fascinating happened that the raw data doesn't tell you.

We’ve been tracking Marco Island's market for five months now, and May's numbers made me do something I rarely do—question the data. Not because it's wrong, but because it reveals something most people will miss entirely.

Here's what caught my attention: How do you get a 24.79% price drop while inventory shrinks by 14.62%? In any normal market, less inventory should mean higher prices, not lower ones. The answer could change how you think about timing the market…

📊 The May Reality Check

Months of Inventory: 10.1 (↓14.62%)
Sold to List Price Ratio: 93.3% (↑0.24%)
Days on Market: 67 (↓2.9%)
Median Sold Price: $902,500 (↓24.79%)

The contradiction: Fewer homes available, selling faster, yet prices dropped dramatically.

🔍 What Five Months of Data May Actually Reveal

We've tracked this market through every twist:

  • January: $1,180,000 median (9.95 months inventory)

  • February: $1,450,000 median—a 5-year record high

  • March: $1,150,000 median (back down, but sold-to-list jumped to 98.9%)

  • April: $1,200,000 median (sold-to-list dropped back to 93.1%)

  • May: $902,500 median (inventory finally drops, but so do prices)

Here's what this pattern suggests: Marco's market appears to be behaving like a selection market—where what sells may determine the median more than overall current market conditions.

💡 The Pattern That’s Worth Watching

Why this could matter: If you're making buy/sell decisions based on "the market is up" or "the market is down," you might be looking at the wrong signal. The real question may be: What type of property is moving, and why?

The evidence: Through every price swing—$540K difference between February and May—one thing remained relatively constant: homes selling at 93-94% of list price and 9-11 months of inventory. The fundamentals seem stable while the mix appears to have changed.

🎯 What This Actually Means for You

🏠 BUYERS: Consider focusing less on timing "the market." The data suggests fairly consistent buyer leverage (around 7% below list) regardless of median price swings.

🏡 SELLERS: Your competition may not be median price headlines—it could be what else is available in your price range and property type.

💼 INVESTORS: The Marco Island market appears to have fairly consistently delivered 9+ months of inventory and roughly 7% negotiating room, regardless of headline numbers.

🔬 The Marco Island Market Summary

  • Median price volatility seems likely to reflect inventory mix rather than market strength

  • The 67-69 day sales timeline has been remarkably consistent

  • Negotiating power (6-7% below list) hasn't changed much despite median price swings

  • What this suggests: Marco Island may offer more predictable transaction conditions within unpredictable price headlines. That could be valuable for strategic decision-making.

The City of Marco Island is hosting a fireworks display on July 4th at approximately 9:00pm. Fireworks will launch from a barge situated off the coast between Tigertail Beach and South Beach. 

Let’s Connect 🤝

Understanding your local market shouldn't be guesswork. While headlines focus on median prices, the real opportunities often lie in understanding inventory patterns, negotiating leverage, and timing that works for your specific situation.

I'd like to offer you a complimentary market analysis tailored to your property or investment goals. Whether you're curious about your home's current value, exploring neighborhood trends, or considering your next move, I'll provide you with the same data-driven insights you see in this newsletter—customized for your needs.

Ready to get started? Simply reply to this email or call me directly.

Edward Karas
REALTOR®
Premiere Plus Realty
(239) 388-7715 | [email protected]

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